Boeing’s latest Commercial Market Outlook forecasts a near doubling of global passenger traffic by 2045, with almost 44,000 new aircraft set to reshape airline fleets, connectivity, and sustainability.
Global aviation may be navigating geopolitical uncertainty and operational constraints, but Boeing believes the industry’s long-term trajectory remains firmly upward.
Released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, the company’s 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) projects that the global commercial fleet will expand by nearly 80 percent over the next two decades, surpassing 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
To meet this demand, airlines and cargo operators are expected to require almost 44,000 new aircraft, reflecting sustained passenger growth, expanding freight markets, and continued fleet renewal.
Half of those deliveries are expected to replace previous-generation aircraft with more fuel-efficient models, supporting both operational efficiency and wider sustainability ambitions.
“Airlines are adapting quickly to manage near-term industry constraints while demand for air travel remains resilient,” said Brad McMullen, Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing at Boeing.
DEMAND REMAINS RESILIENT
Despite ongoing disruption across parts of the global aviation market, Boeing expects passenger demand to remain remarkably robust over the long term.
The company forecasts global passenger traffic will grow by around four percent annually, doubling between 2026 and 2045. While recent geopolitical tensions have affected some long-haul routes, particularly in the Middle East, travellers are largely changing destinations and routings rather than abandoning trips altogether.
Boeing also highlights broader structural drivers behind future demand, including growing tourism, expanding global trade, dispersed family networks, and increasing international connectivity.
Airlines continue to respond by expanding their route networks. Since 2015, almost 5,500 new airport pairs have been introduced, increasing global airline networks by nearly 30 percent and giving passengers greater access to direct services.
At the same time, carriers are diversifying their offerings. Premium travel continues to grow across mature markets such as North America and Northeast Asia, whilst low-cost airlines are expanding rapidly throughout emerging economies, improving affordability and widening access to air travel.
Fleet expansion will be matched by significant modernisation over the next 20 years.
Of the projected 43,625 aircraft deliveries, more than 33,500 will be single-aisle aircraft, reinforcing their role as the backbone of global short-haul aviation. Widebody aircraft will account for more than 7,700 deliveries, alongside regional aircraft and dedicated freighters.
Replacement demand is expected to accelerate across both mature and developing markets. By 2045, Boeing projects fewer than 10 percent of previous-generation aircraft will remain in service as operators prioritise newer, more efficient fleets.
The company also notes that advances in aircraft efficiency are becoming increasingly important. Without the productivity gains delivered by modern aircraft, airlines would require an additional 9,000 airplanes to transport the same number of passengers.
Passenger travel is only one part of the industry’s long-term growth story.
Boeing forecasts global air cargo traffic will increase by approximately 3.7 percent annually through 2045, driven by cross-border e-commerce, demand for time-sensitive and high-value goods, and the need for resilient supply chains.
Even amid geopolitical disruption, international freighter capacity has already risen by five percent year-to-date in 2026, demonstrating the adaptability of global cargo networks.
Looking ahead, Boeing expects demand for more than 2,900 new and converted freighters as operators modernise fleets whilst supporting growing freight volumes.
Together, the forecasts present a picture of an aviation sector continuing to invest in capacity, efficiency, and connectivity. Although short-term challenges remain, Boeing’s latest outlook suggests the industry’s long-term fundamentals remain firmly intact as airlines prepare for a future where global air travel is larger, more connected, and increasingly efficient.
